(更新版) 楊月清: 2017 義大利Isodarco國際會議在台北圓滿舉行(上集)

2017 義大利Isodarco國際會議在台北圓滿舉行(上集)

(5/26 – 29 ,2017)

(圖文報導: 保華嫂楊月清)

 

1-2 解決爭端尋求世界和平的義大利Isodarco國際會議連續三日在中        研院資訊所舉行！

3- Isodarco董事之一的國際法學專家謝淑媛博士專程來台主持會           議！

4- 陳建仁副總統出席Isodarco會議發言中！

5- 為副總統陳建仁的出席，而在會場兩邊站滿了國安人員，會場氣        氛頓然肅穆緊張！

6- 台灣民主基金會副執行長楊黄美幸出席Isodarco會議開幕典禮致        辭！

7-全力促成會議的前國安會祕書長邱義仁出席Isodarco會議！

 

8- Isodarco國際研討會上來自各國的專家學者濟濟一堂！

 

9- 來自美國的戰略專家Jermeng蘇的精采演講, 極獲好評。

 

10-資深評論家林保華在Isodarco國際會議中說: 中國是最大的流氓               國家！

在以防止戰爭為目標的60年前大科學家愛因斯坦創立的老組織Isodarco台北研討會中，林保華大胆顛覆了該會的傳統，提出以戰止戰的新思維，令不少外國學者吃驚！

 

11- 林保華、楊月清夫婦歡迎專程出席Isodarco會議的兩位維吾爾民            族好友、左、英國的核災難專家安華托帝及右、德國的世維大會            副主席Umit Hamit來台

12- 由大科學家愛因斯坦60年前在義大利所成立的組織，為避免侵略             和戰爭、以謀求世界和平為宗旨而于1995年得到諾貝爾和平獎                 的Isodarco，今年在台北舉行年會，陳建仁副總統親臨主持開                 幕典禮。 來自全球各國的學者、專家以及香港代表劉慧卿、黄               台仰、世界南蒙古大會主席席海明、世界維吾爾大會

            代表Umit、與核災研究者安華托帝、和台灣邱義仁、楊黄美幸                 及主講    人之一、林保華、楊月清夫婦等一同合影留念！

   李唐峰攝

 

13- 自由時報第一時間報導了會議情况！

 

14- 盛裝主持Isodarco會議惜別晚宴的國際法專家謝淑媛博士,
           也有溫和婉約的一面！ 

15- 16- Isodarco會議結束後的惜別餐會熱鬧的一角!

來自全球各國的專家學者齊聚一堂,三天來的發表/
討論/研究/爭論...,真是場難得的一個盛會,開幕日承蒙陳建仁副總統親自出席,更是彰顯了60年前由大科學家愛因斯坦創立的謀求世界和平的組織Isodarco的份量!
這場台式傳統 " 辦桌宴 " 讓海外賓客大開眼界也大飽口福!

 

歡迎參觀, 天佑全球!

 

***********************

林保華在Isodarco會議中的演講稿(中文)

5-27-2017

 

( 林保華: 對流氓國家需要以戰止戰 )

2002年1月29日，美國總統布希在國情咨文裡點名的伊朗、伊拉克和朝鮮為流氓國家，布希總統沒有點名中國，一乃中國是大國的現實政治考量，二乃中國善用甜言蜜語而以偽君子面目出現。

實際上，中國政府是這三個流氓國家在政治、軍事與經濟的最大支持者。中國獨裁者所犯反人類罪行，實行國家恐怖主義，以及違背國際承諾，窮兵黷武威脅區域和平，與這些國家互為伯仲。在聯合國不是反對對他們的制裁，就是以棄權表現出投機取巧、陽奉陰違的流氓本性。

流氓的本質是欺軟怕硬、恃強凌弱。在遇到強勁對手時則表現為色厲內荏。西方民主國家必須掌握到這個特點，才能在認清本質的同時，攻其弱點進行反制。

北京對待去年7月海牙國際仲裁法院對南海的裁決就是如此。既然事先已經拒絕參與，事後又大呼小叫，不敢面對國際，只願與小國家雙邊會談以大壓小，或進行收買，分化東南亞諸國。東協峰會難有譴責中國的共同主張就是這個原因。

對美國以武力維護國際秩序與航海自由的努力，北京一方面說是尊重航海自由，而且會為南海航行和生產提供更好的公共服務；卻又偷偷大建人造島及其軍事施設，並且宣佈行使司法權。習近平上台後，中國軍方一再製造中美必有一戰的輿論（2013年軍方影片《較量無聲》）；然而美國軍艦在南海航行時，北京大談和平。川普上台以後，北京全面降溫，但是沒有停止擴建軍事設施。（圖1）

作為中國馬前卒的北韓也是如此，中國高喊朝鮮半島無核化，從1990年代柯林頓時代喊到現在，中間還有多次六方會談。結果是北韓從無核變有核，從試射短程飛彈到試射長程飛彈。在核試以後，北韓就退出六方會談。因此北京再以六方會談行騙，川普沒有再上鉤，而是人盯人強迫習近平管教金正恩。（圖2）

美國與中國、朝鮮的對話、談判，實際上被這些流氓所騙，養虎貽患。假如繼續過去的姑息政策，難免重演1930年代英國張伯倫政府綏靖政策的錯誤，東南亞與東亞國家不但將成為當年被納粹蹂躪的歐洲國家，瀰漫反對介入二戰的美國社會爾後在發生珍珠港事件付出沉重代價後才宣佈參戰。現在中國的人口與經濟實力，絕非當年德國、日本可比，何況可能還會有俄羅斯對流氓國家的支持。

中國（包括北韓）敢於如此，乃是吃準美國容易被騙及害怕與中國打仗而要付出代價的弱點。以恐嚇來阻止美國動武換取時間在軍事上赶超美國再決勝負。因此要確保區域和平，需要及早趁中國軍力與美國還有相當差距時先動手。過去差距更大時美國沒有採取行動已失最好時機，越拖對美國越不利。為了避免未來大戰的嚴重損失，用局部戰爭來消除未來大戰付出的小損失就尤其必要了。

以戰止戰，用局部戰爭來制止未來將會發生的大規模戰爭，是解決流氓國家的最好形式。正如馬基維利所主張的，如果控制得當，衝突比起一潭死水似的安定，更可以推動人類進步。中國也在運用這個理論以製造控制得當的衝突來擴張在南海與全球的專制勢力，美國為何不應該反制？

這個局部戰爭可能發生在南海，也可以發生在朝鮮半島或東海及台灣海峽乃至有中國軍艦、軍機出沒的其他地區。所謂局部戰爭，就是美國利用海空軍的優勢，尋找擦搶座或的機會，一舉殲滅中國或北韓的部分精銳軍力。不要動用陸軍，防止出現當年越戰與中東戰爭而讓美國陷入泥淖，而由當地人民決定自己的未來前途。

習近平上台後中共高層以反腐進行激烈權力鬥爭，落馬的省部級以上高官近30名，副省部級85名，導致官不聊生；清洗軍隊超過110名的將領，導致軍心不穩、士氣低落。局部戰爭中國的必然失敗，可以粉碎它的虛妄民族主義，讓被騙的民眾可以覺醒。加上經濟下行、貧富差距擴大、失業率增高，將促使人民唾棄這個政權；也可以促使黨內與民間比較健康的力量有較大的空間推動改革。

由於中國各地的"向錢看"，一旦發生戰事，不少地方政府會以保護地方經濟為名而求自保，也會得到地方民眾的支持。中央要發動大規模戰爭很困難，結果會像1900年的八國聯軍，經濟發展的東南六省自保，沒有跟隨愚昧的義和團去打仗。此後清朝被逼進行憲政改革，不幸已經太晚而引爆辛亥革命，推翻帝制。擴張帝國朝貢體系的一帶一路將可能被"帶路黨"所取代。（圖3）

中共的導師列寧說，帝國主義是戰爭的根源。中華大帝國是後期的帝國主義，而且是內部沒有民主制度制約的帝國主義，更是目前最大的戰爭根源。二戰後發生的國與國之間的戰爭，主要都由獨裁國家發動或參與，很少有民主國家之間的戰爭。因此以局部戰爭制止中國未來發動的侵略戰爭，可以維護區域和平乃至世界和平。

打敗中國的局部戰爭也會刺激中國的改革，推動地方自治，瓦解中央集權制度。至於將來分成幾個國家，或者組織邦聯還是聯邦，那是中國人自己去解決的事情，但是用外力打開一個缺口促其生變則是非常重要。

中華帝國的崩解，將推動可能是全球最後一波的民主浪潮，其他小獨裁政權將不足為患，民主化走到半途而倒退的俄羅斯也將因為失去"中國牌"而不得不重拾民主正軌。這才是地球上持久和平的保證。

 

**********************

Bao-Hua, Paul, Lin

5-27-2017      Isodarco Meeting , Taipei, Taiwan

 

Time to Get Tough with the Rogue States

 

During his 2002 State of the Union address, the former US President George W. 

 

Bush named Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the rogue states. He did not include 

 

China because of the reality that it is too big to be referred to as such, and 

 

secondly China has been faking as a nice hyprocrite.

 

In fact, the Chinese government is the biggest supporter of the three rogue 

 

states in politics, the military and the economy. Chinese regime's totalertarian 

 

crimes against humanity, the implementation of state terrorism, the breach of 

 

international commitments, and militarism upsetting regional peace are proofs 

 

that it is an accomplice. China behaves thuggishly either to U.N. sanctions 

 

against these rogue states, or to act to protect their interest subversively given 

 

all opportunities.

 

The nature of such thuggish behavior is bullying hard-bullying weak. In the face 

 

of a strong opposition, China appears to compliant, just remains stubborn. 

 

Western democracies must understand such characteristics, while countering at 

 

its weakness.

 

This was the way Beijing treats the ruling of Hague International Court of 

 

Arbitration in July last year. China first refused to participate the court's 

 

investigation and mediation, later making big fuss againt the ruling, not daring 

 

to face up to the collective international effort for resolution, only willing to 

 

engage in pressing bilateral talks with small countries with economic incentives 

 

to create division amongst Southeast Asian countries. This is the reason why the 

 

ASEAN summit failed to collectively condemn China's claim in the region.

 

Beijing, on the one hand, pretends to support of the USagenda and 

 

commitment to maintaining international order and freedom of naval passage in 

 

the South Sea to the common good of regional economic opportunities, yet on 

 

the other hand, secretly building man-made islands practically off groups of 

 

rocks for military installations, at the same time, declares and exercises judicial 

 

power. After Xi Jinping came to power, the Chinese military repeatly made it 

 

known to its domestic audience that a war between Chinaand the United States 

 

is unavoidable (ref. 2013 PLA propaganda film "the Silent Jostling"); However, 

 

when the US warships show their presence inthe SouthSea, Beijing talks peace. 

 

After Trump came to power, Beijing cools off its rethoretics across all 

 

propaganda channels, but the expansion of military facilities never slackens. 

 

(figure 1)

 

The same is true of North Korea, as a collective group of Chinese forward 

 

regiments: while China long claims support fordenuclearization of the Korean 

 

Penins with strong word, participating in numerous six-party talks since the 

 

Clinton era in the 1990s, the end result is North Korea has gone from nuclear-

 

free to nuclear, from test firing short-range missiles to test long-range missiles. 

 

After the nuclear test, North Korea withdrew from the six-party talks. Beijing 

 

now again promotes the six-party talks to deceive, Trump administration, not to 

 

be fooled as the predecessors, forced Xi Jinping on Kim Jong-un instead. (figure 

 

2)

 

The past dialogues and negotiations the United States had with deceptive China 

 

and North Korea ended up with dire reality all have to face today. If such 

 

palliative policy were to continue, a repeat of 1930s British Chamberlain 

 

government appeasement policy error is almot garanteed, Southeast Asia and 

 

East Asian countries will not only become the likes of Nazi-ravaged European 

 

countries, then with much domestic opposition to get intangled with impending 

 

World War II in the event of Pearl Harbor incident, only to pay a heavy price 

 

after the shooting started. Now China's population and economic strength are 

 

beyond those of Germany and Japan, not to mention there has been potential 

 

Russia's support for rogue countries.

 

The reason China, with North Korea, has been so daring is that they take 

 

advantege of the US weakness fearing the human and political costs of a war 

 

with sizable power. Their strategy is to deter the United States at present to gain 

 

time for the military capability to catch up with the United States, banking on an 

 

eventual win. So to ensure that regional peace and stability, decisive actions 

 

need to take place while there is still sizable gap between the China's military and 

 

the United States.  Most favorable opportunities of the past have been lost, the 

 

reality has been the longer the US and its allies wait, the more difficult it will get. 

 

In order to avoid the serious loss of war in the future, localized military actions 

 

at the present time, with a much smaler loss, is particularly necessary.

 

Localized wars to present a large-scale war in the future, is the best approach to 

 

resolve the challenge of the rogue states. As Niccolò Machiavellii advocates, if 

 

appropriately managed, a conflict is more stable than a pool of dead water, but 

 

also serve promote human progress beyond such obstancles. China is also apply 

 

the same theory to create a well-controlled conflict to expand the tyrannical 

 

forces in the South Sea and across the world, why shouldn't the US and its allies 

 

counter?

 

This local war may occur in the South Sea, can also occur in the Korean 

 

Peninsula or the East Sea and the Taiwan Strait and even other areas Chinese 

 

warships and military aircraft frequent. The aforementioned local war is for the 

 

United States to use the current air force and navy's advantages, looking for the 

 

opportunity to annihilate some of China or North Koreaelite military power in 

 

one fell swoop. Such precisely targeted military actions involves no (army's) 

 

boot on grounds as the past entanglement during the Vietnam War and Gulf 

 

wars, both led the United States into quagmires, while affording citizens of the 

 

rogue states to decide on their own future.

 

Xi Jinping, after coming to power, exercises the high-level, fierce anti-corruption 

 

power struggle manuver to secure his hold of the state. At least 30 top officials 

 

above the provincial and ministerial level, 85 deputy provincial and ministerial 

 

offical, and 110 or more PLA generals have been eliminated, if not prosecuted, 

 

leading to extreme low morale and instability. Chinawould for sure fail in the 

 

afforementiond local war: false nationalism crushed, fooled and suppressed 

 

citizens awake. Coupled with China's current economic downturn, widening the 

 

gap between rich and poor, increased unemployment, the reality in China will 

 

encourage people to cast aside this regime, allowing the communist party and 

 

the public to have healthier attitude towards expanded opportunities for reform.

 

As China's "Follows the Money" across the country, in the event of a local war, 

 

many local government officials will protect themselves in the name of protecting 

 

the local economy and order, a ploy that should be largely supported by local 

 

people.  It would be very difficult for the Chinese central government to launch a 

 

large-scale war, much like the predicament during Boxers' Rebellion (or Eight 

 

Nations' Invasion) in 1900: the prosperous southeast six provinces self-

 

protection, did not join the ignorant boxers to to the fight. The failure to repell 

 

Eight Nations forced the Qing Dynasty to constitutional reform, too late to 

 

escape the fate of an even more progressive revolution to overthrow the 

 

monarchy. The expansion of the empire tributary system along "One Belt, One 

 

Road" will likely be an insider jobs help leading in the allies, as occurred during 

 

Boxers'-Eight Nations conflict. (image 3)

 

Lenin, the mentor of the Chinese Communist Party, says that imperialism is the 

 

root of war. The so-called Greater China empire is a late imperialism, of an 

 

imperialist system without moderation via domestic democracy. It is also the 

 

biggest source of war. The wars among countries after World War II were mainly 

 

initiated or participated by authoritarian regimes, with few conflicts between 

 

democracies. Therefore, the local war to stop a China's future aggression, would 

 

support regional and even world peace.

 

Defeating China's local war will also stimulate China's reform, promote local 

 

autonomy, bring the collapse of the centralization system. As for the future 

 

division into a multitudes of countries, the confederation or federal, it will be up 

 

to the people currently under Chinese regime to decide on their own, however 

 

positive external influence to offer a genuine opportuniy is crucial.

 

The disintegration of the Chinese Empire has the potential to promote the final 

 

wave of democracy in the rest of the world, as the remaining dictatorship will be 

 

less threatening, and the half-baked, back and forward democratization in Russia 

 

will lose the "Chinese card", having to give democracy another try. This then is a 

 

legimate guarantee of an ever lasting peace.

 

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